Snow

[Mortster]

Scotty? Have you seen the weather? Some parts of the highlands might get a dusting of snow tonight, tomorrow.....

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Scotty? Have you seen the weather? Some parts of the highlands might get a dusting of snow tonight, tomorrow.....

Yup and thank god I moved lol .

[Mortster]

Could take the black one out for a play in the snow....in JULY....

[scotty]

Not a chance in hell don't want 2 scoobs off the road lol .

[C. J.]

Sounds like you need some driving lessons

[Hongkongfooi]

weird weather to get that in july...even ooop north

[scotty]

Originally Posted by C. J.

Shoulders like you need some driving lessons

Lol yeah I need some .

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Hongkongfooi

weird weather to get that in july...even ooop north

You kidding Tim this is one messed up country up here .

[scotty]

Looks like Rob brought down the good old Scottish weather back with him well the sun is splitting the trees up here lol .

[Rdlangy1]

Kent is pretty Damp to say the least! and thunder and lightning

[Steve_PPP]

Originally Posted by Rdlangy1

Kent is pretty Damp to say the least! and thunder and lightning

Sussex is no better! Had to come home from work at midday as garden was flooding and garage was filling up with water with the scoob in it





Was about 2" deep at the front and 4" deep at the back. Lots of soggy stuff in there

[Rdlangy1]

Holy sugar honey ice tea!!!

[NL03Scooby]

Originally Posted by scotty

Looks like Rob brought down the good old Scottish weather back with him well the sun is splitting the trees up here lol .

Hilariously I thought the exact same thing this morning. I think Black Beauty had thought it had escaped the pants Scottish weather... Obviously not!

[NL03Scooby]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

Sussex is no better! Had to come home from work at midday as garden was flooding and garage was filling up with water with the scoob in it



Was about 2" deep at the front and 4" deep at the back. Lots of soggy stuff in there

Hope the house survived any of the damp, sorry to see the garage a little drowned, hope you didn't have anything damaged in the garage! I can't believe how bad it's been today, I'm wondering if Ryan has been washing his car again... Haha!

[Banstead Stig]

Bloody hell Steve, that doesn't look good at all.

Hope you get it sorted and it didn't get worse.

[Steve_PPP]

Originally Posted by Rdlangy1

Holy sugar honey ice tea!!!

Erm... yeah, those were the exact words i used. I think

Originally Posted by NL03Scooby

Hope the house survived any of the damp, sorry to see the garage a little drowned, hope you didn't have anything damaged in the garage! I can't believe how bad it's been today, I'm wondering if Ryan has been washing his car again... Haha!

Nothing major damaged, some timber which will probably dry out banana shaped and be useless, a few other bits and bobs. Oh, and rock wool insulation soaks up a stupid amount of water, and weights a shedload when its wet! Had a whole roll standing on the garage floor, so thats ruined. But on the plus side, scoob all ok

Originally Posted by Banstead Stig

Bloody hell Steve, that doesn't look good at all.

Hope you get it sorted and it didn't get worse.

Pretty much dry now, luckily the weather eased off just as i got home to deal with it. Never seen flooding like that here before, the garage filled up because the road flooded out the front of the house and overwhelmed the drains which caused it to rise over the pavement ridge (like a crest) and run down the drive.

[Rdlangy1]

Originally Posted by NL03Scooby

I'm wondering if Ryan has been washing his car again... Haha!

Yep ill give you that one PMSL !!!!!

[Mortster]

Did you get any this morning Scotty? Abigail dragged in a load of cold air behind her! ��

[scotty]

Nope none yet but this is up at Glenshee
Its coming

[Mortster]

.Nice! ��

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Mortster

.Nice! ��

Did you not see enough on your expedition

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by scotty

Did you not see enough on your expedition

Nope, I'd be more than happy living full time up in the white fluffy mountains

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Nope, I'd be more than happy living full time up in the white fluffy mountains

move up here then

[scotty]

Another pic this is the A9

[Mortster]

Keep your eyes on next Saturday Thermal and 850hpa charts are looking interesting!

[scotty]

So what youre saying Nick snow is on route .

[Mortster]

Yep, just for the day. Massive chunk of cold air gets dragged in from the NW, trapped in between and area of low and high. If the area of low interacts with the cold...any precipitation falls as snow

[scotty]

Well if you dont get any i will send you some

[jmcc42uk]

Never get any on the south coast, and if we do it melts fast.....boring!

[scotty]

Well thats it offically landed up north in kincardine o'neil time will tell if we central belters get any

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by scotty

Well thats it offically landed up north in kincardine o'neil time will tell if we central belters get any

See...weather wizard told you so

[scotty]

You said saturday lol a day early i do hope you's get some white fluffy powder soon .

[Banstead Stig]

Impressive work Nick!

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by scotty

You said saturday lol a day early i do hope you's get some white fluffy powder soon .

We're not due any down here!

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Mortster

We're not due any down here!

I will ask santa kindly

[iPond]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Yep, just for the day. Massive chunk of cold air gets dragged in from the NW, trapped in between and area of low and high. If the area of low interacts with the cold...any precipitation falls as snow

Originally Posted by Mortster

We're not due any down here!

Where did you buy your crystal ball!!

This morning in Epsom I've woken up to a good half inch of snow covering the cars and ground. It's raining now so melting quick but none of the weather reports I checked yesterday even mentioned a chanve of snow and you saw this coming over a week ago!

[RobEvo5]

Any thoughts/predictions on the longer range forecast ?. Are we going to be lucky all winter and largely continue to be mild ?. Or is there any mileage in what the Daily Express were forecasting a couple of months ago about the coldest and harsh winter in 100 years with lots of snow ?.

Cheers

[Banstead Stig]

The Express has forecast that for the last five years at least.

[NL03Scooby]

Originally Posted by Banstead Stig

The Express has forecast that for the last five years at least.

Haha! They are so bad at that paper, when the front pages are not filled up with weather news it's something about Princess Diana...

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by RobEvo5

Any thoughts/predictions on the longer range forecast ?. Are we going to be lucky all winter and largely continue to be mild ?. Or is there any mileage in what the Daily Express were forecasting a couple of months ago about the coldest and harsh winter in 100 years with lots of snow ?.

Cheers

Nathan Rao from the Express has pretty much copy/pasted the winter weather from the previous years for 4 years now. Goes along the lines of

" 1000000 days of snow, worst winter ever, ever "

Always gets his reports from John Madden...( not the NFL one )

Most of the decent forecasters are all saying the same thing at the moment. Its a winter of 2 halves. It will begin mild/windy with the odd very cold incursion, like we just had. Then the later half will be very cold.

A El Nino still building in strength has thrown a spanner in the works weather wise on a global scale.

The NAO ( North Atlantic Oscillation ) results are in, but the hardcore are just waiting on the OPI ( October Pattern Index ) results. This enables them to marry up the data and review it against historical data.

Short term, its just about watching what and where the jetstream does and is, and the 850 Thermal charts. The 850 is how i noticed the cold air being dragged in.

[scotty]

Lovely view of my home town of stirling on a winters day

[Mortster]

Hold on to your hat scotty. Rapidly deepening area of low
Pressure heading your way Friday pm and into Sunday. Looks like the
Strongest we've had so far.

No doubt the Met office will class ir as a storm and give it a name begging with D

[scotty]

Light dusting if thats what you call it a mate lives in Edinburgh and posted this pic yesterday still no snow where i live

[Mortster]

Met office just issued its first "RED" of the season. Thats a shed load of rain!

[scotty]

About bloody time its snowing but only round my car lol

[iPond]

The more I see your wheels, the more I think I want a set!!

[NL03Scooby]

Originally Posted by scotty

About bloody time its snowing but only round my car lol

That is normally the only snow us 'Southerners' get to see!

[Banstead Stig]

There was an isolated flurry on my Forester on Sunday... very similar to that...!

[Mortster]

Winter isnt over yet....there might be some balance to come ( fingers crossed )

[RobEvo5]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Winter isnt over yet....there might be some balance to come ( fingers crossed )

Probably as much chance as Planet Nibiru / Planet X showing its head in the coming weeks which is claimed to be causing all this due to magnetic pulls and start of polar shift, but you never know, meanwhile I'll enjoy my daffodils in Winter

[Scott.T]

Originally Posted by scotty

About bloody time its snowing but only round my car lol

Looks good, but sat too low, especially on the back IMHO.
Well below the optimal setting for a classic.

[Mortster]

Been watching this on the Model runs for 4 days now. We are now close enough for this to be a concern. The model runs 4 times a day, using live data, and predictive data to forecast ahead. The closer we get to the event, the higher % chance of it being correct...etc etc

At first, this area of LP was just one, and run easterly across northern England again!

The last few runs have plotted it further south. The latest runs see's two strong areas of LP, one after the other with 90+ MPH gust speeds.

Hold on to your hats, Tuesday and Wednesday could get very windy....

[Mortster]

The Atlantic is in full steam now, chucking area after area of LP towards us. The posistion of the jetstream normally flings them further north as they make land fall. The current track on a fairly potent area of LP on Thursday is right along the channel, with the highest winds brushing the south east cost. Potential for 70mph+ gusts.

[Steve_PPP]

Oh great. I've had enough of this wind and rain now, can't we have some nice crisp sunny winter days now?

[Banstead Stig]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

Oh great. I've had enough of this wind and rain now, can't we have some nice crisp sunny winter days now?

Agreed.

Someone I know earlier said how "lucky" we'd been to have had so much mild weather. That's not how I see it!!

[Mortster]

High pressure to the North East has held this back in the Atlantic. Current GFS shows the area of LP running over North France.

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

Oh great. I've had enough of this wind and rain now, can't we have some nice crisp sunny winter days now?

Your wish is granted, much colder this week

[Steve_PPP]

Originally Posted by Mortster

High pressure to the North East has held this back in the Atlantic. Current GFS shows the area of LP running over North France.

So we're going to dodge the worst of the weather then?

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

So we're going to dodge the worst of the weather then?

Nope

[Mortster]

Its coming!!

[bigemp]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Its coming!!

yaaaaay.....not

whats that more Rain or the dreaded snow??

So when will we have the pleasure then???

[Mortster]

Steve's got his wish, everyone cold enough this morning? The coldest night will be Sat into Sun.

Scotty...ready for some white stuff?

We may get the odd overnight flurry, but our day times temps and air freezing height are not a good set up. ��

[Steve_PPP]

Lovely out there this morning, sunny and crisp. Much better than wet and windy, even if it is a tad nippy

No snow for the south east then?

[iPond]

Definitely a bit fresher this week, had to scrape a thin layer of ice off the windscreen this morning!

[thepieman]

Snow will be a great test of the snow mode function on the supra... I'm not holding out much faith in it

[scotty]

Always ready for snow mind you its been snowing in different areas in the last week or 2 but none in my area lol .

[Mortster]

Biggest chance we have in the south is sun/Mon. Need the overnight temps to be low, then slow to warm up during the day, otherwise is just mush that falls. Monday morning drive to work could be fun

[Bolesroor]

Originally Posted by thepieman

Snow will be a great test of the snow mode function on the supra... I'm not holding out much faith in it

Had snow mode on an Omega, it was as much use as a chocolate teapot

[scotty]

The snow is here woo hoo

[scotty]

Just back from a drive lol

[Banstead Stig]

Do you reckon it'll get this far south overnight, Nick?

Reports seem a bit mixed.

[Mortster]

Theres a 100 mile wide strip heading down in a southeasterly direction, I think it will miss most of Surrey, but London and Kent may see soome flurries. The bonus is that it made it down to us during the night, so will be snow rather than mush. Fingers crossed though.

[Banstead Stig]

It's just started lightly snowing here.

[Rdlangy1]

When I'm warm enough I'll look out the window and see if I've had a dusting Pmsl

[Banstead Stig]

We've had a little bit, nothing too special though.

[asperformance]

Nothing here, albeit there are some places in the region who have had some

[Banstead Stig]

There was enough here in the end to get out to the park and build a snowman with the Stiglet.

The roads were clear, so no fun to be had.

[Hrimfaxi]

Well the snow in Beckenham this morning was more "sky dandruff" than snow, it was hardly worth it.

I reckon we're in for round 2 soon though.

[iPond]

We had a fair bit at ours yesterday morning but it didnt stick around long.

[Mortster]

The sign's of SSW are starting to show, will know more in a week. I wont explain SSW ( Sudden Stratospheric Warming) as its very long winded and dull...

But it translates to much, much colder weather.

[Steve_PPP]

Now call me an idiot, but how does something called 'sudden stratospheric warming' equate to it getting colder?

[NL03Scooby]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

Now call me an idiot, but how does something called 'sudden stratospheric warming' equate to it getting colder?

I presume being stratospheric it's quite high up and probably impacts temperatures and pressures but through changeable weather at lower altitude... But I'm no expert so am stabbing in the dark here!

[Rdlangy1]

- sounds good rob Pmsl

[NL03Scooby]

Originally Posted by Rdlangy1

- sounds good rob Pmsl

Thought A-Level Geography might crop up again somewhere in my life, I didn't get a great exam result though and my guess above could back that up.

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by NL03Scooby

I presume being stratospheric it's quite high up and probably impacts temperatures and pressures but through changeable weather at lower altitude... But I'm no expert so am stabbing in the dark here!

Pretty much, pushes colder weather out from the poles. Forces the jetstream to take a more southerly route.

Before Nathan Rao and crew go all SNOWMAGEDDON again, the signs are its starting, along with a now negative AO, it looks like the early winter reports of warm start/cold finish are looking more likely. Some of the data being thrown about is very similar to Dec 2010.

[scotty]

The white fluffy substance is here again whoop whoop

[Mortster]

Looking very likely that's its our turn for the wind down south. Current wind charts are saying 100mph+ along the south coast Tuesday daytime! Something to keep a eye on.

[oldskool]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Looking very likely that's its our turn for the wind down south. Current wind charts are saying 100mph+ along the south coast Tuesday daytime! Something to keep a eye on.

i check this thread for updates daily Nick ,,, whats the outlook like for some decent snow event now looking at the models ?

[Steve_PPP]

Originally Posted by Mortster

Current wind charts are saying 100mph+ along the south coast Tuesday daytime! Something to keep a eye on.

Oh feck, my back garden fence is only just hanging onto life as it is

[Mortster]

Well, I deliberately haven't mentioned snow. But the words "major snow event" are currently being chucked about. The trouble with the charts is that everyone starts to look so far ahead that it becomes pure simulation, rather than data based on actual weather.

[oldskool]

gotcha ,,, guess thats why i like your forecasts so much as you prefer accuracy over possibilities ,, ok well ill keep checking here in hope

[Frenchie]

Hi Nick,any chance you could extend your regular forecasts to cover Northern France.

[Mortster]

12 hours later and the wind charts are the same, you can see the 80-90 centre running through the channel west to east. Coastal areas and northan france possibly gusts over 70mph.

Theres a definite shift for the areas of low presure moving further south each time now. This means the cold air gets dragged further south behind them.

[Frenchie]

Thanks Nick. Any sunshine on the way?

[Mortster]

The area of low pressure on sat/sun has deepened rapidly. High winds possible 60mph gusts and a shed load of rain!

[Mortster]

The Jet stream has has accelerated the weather, the LP will now arrive Sunday Night and through into Monday. The SW will take the brunt of it, but as it moves east along the coast. high winds and rain still expected.

As it pulls cold air in behind, chance of Sleet early Tuesday.

[scotty]

Well todays forcast in Central Scotland is erm cold and well white lol

[Mortster]

Everyone needs to get up 5 minutes earlier for the next 4 to 5 days. Morning frosts and ice.

[scotty]

Not me i dont start work until 2pm lol

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by scotty

Not me i dont start work until 2pm lol

You have a yellow warning for Snow/Ice