Snow

[scotty]

That's it starting to arrive

[jusnogood]

Where's that mate?

[Mortster]

It will be gone by Tuesday, warm front coming in. Jan's the one to watch, signs are its still going to be Jurasic!

[asperformance]

not even had a sight of anything here near Durham/Newcastle

[bottlesofbecks]

Ahhhh snow, miss the stuff.

[jusnogood]

We had heavy frost in Surrey...and perhaps very light snow - fence had more than
A little frost on it.

[scotty]

Originally Posted by jusnogood

Where's that mate?

Inverness mate

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Mortster

It will be gone by Tuesday, warm front coming in. Jan's the one to watch, signs are its still going to be Jurasic!

Yeah didn't last Nick plenty on the mountains for the snowboarders though .

[oldskool]

Originally Posted by Mortster

It will be gone by Tuesday, warm front coming in. Jan's the one to watch, signs are its still going to be Jurasic!

Ha every landy owners dream

[Domo2106]

[IMG][/IMG]


Ive just had this built cant wait for the snow to come

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Domo2106

[IMG][/IMG]


Ive just had this built cant wait for the snow to come

That's mental get it shipped to scotland and have some fun with it .

[Domo2106]

Originally Posted by scotty

That's mental get it shipped to scotland and have some fun with it .

I might have too if it doesnt snow down here

[jmcc42uk]

That looks ace. Doubt we would need it down here, it's a no show with snow at the min

[scotty]

Still here

[Mortster]

The GSM model runs are hinting at some blocking and artic incursions just after xmas.....in English, more snow coming

[scotty]

That was a night mare getting back to Inverness tonight driving the mondeo on snow for about 10 miles doing 25mph a little video 😂😂😂
https://vimeo.com/114725569

[Bytes]

Looks bad ... watch out for the white walkers

[Mortster]

For those weather geeks out there ( possibly only me ) so far the tabloids have been basing there forecast on previous records and science rather than actual forecast done via model runs. The OPI ( October pattern index ) has suggested with its result that this winter will be long and cold, when it arrives. This is what the Express and Mail have been banging on about, but its just pure science based on records that don't go back that far ( 1970's )

But...The two main ways of translating weather data into some for of usable data rather than a whole bunch of figures are GSM and GSR. Various forecasters use either one and up until last night, they have been producing very different weather models.

The run last night saw a coming together of the models, which has put a little bit of panic unto amateur and professional forecasters, and excitement.

This will obviously hit the papers at some point today/tomorrow with doom mongering news grabbing headline.

But the jist of it is, the jet stream will finally push south on or around Christmas day, allowing the cold air to move it, much colder than we've seen so far. How far south the cold air gets depends on how far the Jetstream tracks south. So Up North will almost 100% be bitterly cold, and the % of it affecting southern regions is growing.

Notice I haven't mentioned snow yet...that's because no forecaster on the planet can even predict this, until it forms and is visible on the GSM/GSR. So the news papers saying " Its going to snow for 10000 days" is utter ****e!

What the forecasters can say, is that if any precipitation runs into a cold area, its more than likely to fall as snow rather than rain. So the thing they look for is area's of low pressure being slung across the Atlantic towards us. Which this time of year is numerous.

So there you go, that's what happens to you when you work out side, weather geekdom.

[Mortster]

Feast your eyes on this, again not set in stone, but a run from a German GFS showing a massive cold incursion!

[Bytes]

Thanks for the detailed description & data

I think you should now have your own sticky to provide us with a daily forecast

[Steve_PPP]

Looks interesting..... keep us updated

[RobEvo5]

Good info and keep up posted. With the way the seasons and global climate are changing it reminds me of the film the 'Day after tomorrow' and we are ever nearer the possibility of a polar shift...

[jusnogood]

Yea very interesting...and good idea on the daily forecast Bytes

[Mortster]

Well todays GFS runs are a tad disappointing. The cold area doesn't come as far south as previously thought. So there's going to be a North/South split for Xmas day. There may be a heavy frost Xmas night for boxing day for the southerners, but no snow I'm afraid

Scotty, the White Xmas % is still high for you.

There's still a lot going on in the upper atmosphere that most forecasters don't even know how to read it. We're still for a very cold spell in Jan at the mo.

[Mortster]

Ignore what I've just posted....This is how changeable the systems are at the mo.

Its back on...Lunch time run 06Z T850+SLP shows its still happening.

[Banstead Stig]

So, where is the SES snowball fight if it does all kick off?!

[Mortster]

This has got forecasters heads in a spin. Yesterday, it had gone completely with a warm high pressure area coming in from the south west to kill of any cold air over the south.

This was this mornings run



Sorry its small, but you can just see the North South Split of warm air vs cold.

Now this is 1 hour ago....



Not as bad as 2 days ago, but still showing a massive cold incursion.

Now either the data is corrupt ( does happen sometimes ) or the GFS machines around the globe are playing silly buggers.

Or been hacked by North Korea...

[Bytes]

Thanks for the update Mortster

Bloody North Koreans .....

[Steve_PPP]

Whats T850? Temperature in celcius at 850ft? 850 metres?

[Mortster]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

Whats T850? Temperature in celcius at 850ft? 850 metres?

Its the temp at 1.5km. Its taken from there as its not disturbed by other factors.

Depending on where you are in the world, as a rough guide you add on 10 degrees for surface temperature. But then you also have to factor in wind chill etc etc.

Here's some jargon from a real weather watcher

Based on background signals and current model forecasts a Jan SSW seems rather likely...but in all honesty we probably won't need it, I think we will get some tropospheric led wave flux in to the lower stratosphere before the year is out. If we end up with a West Based Negative NAO just after xmas it's not the end of the world as this will likely lead any sort of Wave 2 attack on the vortex, hopefully re-amplifying the longwave pattern and sharpening up the trough through Scandinavia to drive away the high heights in iberia, so I think we just need to hold out for another couple of weeks, im 90% confident the cold will arrive with a vengeance in Jan.

[Mortster]

Well, some interesting developments to see the least.

The current 06Z run of the above shows to fronts mashing into each other directly over us on the 27th.

There will be snow where the cold front wins, rain where the warm front wins and....wait for it...

In excess of 100mph winds In the middle ground, which is around Yorkshire area.