Snow

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Mortster

You have a yellow warning for Snow/Ice

Been having plenty of frost and ice for the last week or 2 as my daily routine is defrosting the car at 0530 in the morning

[Mortster]

Dont get used to this warm weather....Charts for next week so some serious cold spells!!

[Steve_PPP]

Nooo, just started looking forward to summer!

[Steve_PPP]

Strange weather here today (Crawley). Its 9 or 10c outside but we keep having little snow showers...

[Ginola]

Snowing in Chichester too

[oldskool]

snowing in coldean atm

[Steve_PPP]

Well, bonkers weather in Burgess Hill this evening. Thunder, lightning, and a shedload of hail that settled!

[scotty]

Got nothing where i am at the moment .

[Steve_PPP]

Some of you longer term members might remember a chap with the username Franklands Flyer from Hayward Heath with a white classic, probably 2007-2008 era on Sussex Scoobies. He lives in Burgess Hill these days as well and put this image on facebook earlier - all hail!

[Banstead Stig]

Originally Posted by Steve_PPP

all hail!

Hail!









Oh, sorry. Must have got the wrong end of the stick.

[Steve_PPP]

Thought someone would pick up on that pun

[Rdlangy1]

Bahahahahahaha

[Mortster]

You've a blizzard warning for Friday scotty ��

[scotty]

Mmmm started snowing lets see if it be there in the morning .

[scotty]

Nope gone mmmmm think i moved to the wrong area lol .

[Mortster]

Summer...

You've probably seen the headlines already filtering through the tabloids etc etc

Hottest summer for 100 years

Just check who's reported or written it. Mr Madden and Mr Rao! You know, the same two that have for the last 4 years said

Worst winter for 100 years.....

The facts are, we're seeing the tail end of one of the strongest El Nino's ever recorded, and while it doesn't have and effect on our weather directly, it still changes it globally. The Jet stream is tracking further North than it normally does, and has been all winter, hence the warmer winter, not the coldest for 100000 years as reported!

El Nino reverses and turns into La Nina, which as El Nino does, it effects weather globally. Looking at Historical data rather than tabloids, every event of La Nina since 1900 has produced a warm start to the summer ( this is the tail end effect of El Nino ) then a colder finish.

The fact is though, you just cant forecast that far ahead, and then say in the national papers that its going to happen, because as we've seen from these two Muppets, trying to predict the weather for 3 months in advance is impossible.

Weather reports are generated by many different models and countries, each using their own slight variations due to geographical changes. These are called ensembles. Each country inputs their own data into the GFS, GEM, GEFS etc etc and this generates a rather messy looking report with 21 sets of data all overlay on top of each other. A average is then taken to create the actual weather report, all Rao and Madden do, is take the worst case data and then make their report up on that.

So who knows whats coming! There is a load of high pressure coming mid/end of next week which should see temps back up again though.

[Ferd]

Well put Mortster. Ask any decent meteorologist not under the pressure of needing to obtain grant funding for their work, and they'll tell you no-one can predict weather with any useful degree of accuracy beyond 48hrs.

[Red Baron]

I still like this method of weather reporting, one of many variants I've seen over the years.

[scotty]

Originally Posted by Red Baron

I still like this method of weather reporting, one of many variants I've seen over the years.

Mmmm i see they are copying us men in skirts with the weather chart

[Mortster]

For those desperately looking for summer.... This week it improves slightly, mainly south and south east, we get some warm air up from the continent. Still way below the seasonal average though. Make the most of it, as the North Atlantic is lining up some areas of low pressure to fire at us.

Unfortunately, this is pretty much the pattern for 2 to 3 weeks.

Lets hope we get a late Indian summer!

The only positive in this is for snow hunters, the sea temps around us haven't
Had a chance to rise yet, which increases the chance of any winter precipitation
Falling as snow!

[iPond]

It's July!!! We should not be talking about snow

[scotty]

Just got home and YES WE HAVE SNOW

[oldskool]

Originally Posted by Mortster

For those desperately looking for summer.... This week it improves slightly, mainly south and south east, we get some warm air up from the continent. Still way below the seasonal average though. Make the most of it, as the North Atlantic is lining up some areas of low pressure to fire at us.

Unfortunately, this is pretty much the pattern for 2 to 3 weeks.

Lets hope we get a late Indian summer!

The only positive in this is for snow hunters, the sea temps around us haven't
Had a chance to rise yet, which increases the chance of any winter precipitation
Falling as snow!

Nick any forecast or insights for this winter that you feel are likely ?

[Mortster]

I'll pop one up tomorrow, I run a local weather page now.

[Mortster]

Firstly, let’s look at the key indicators for winter forecasting.


Artic Oscillation

This has been in a negative shift for months now, past few weeks it has been very negative. At the moment, currently slightly negative and is predicted to remain on the negative side of neutral through the first week of December


PV ( Polar Vortex )

Like the AO, the PV is very weak and split, and not where it should be, with no signs of meaningful recovery is predicted. In fact, the models are predicting further weakening of the PV through the end of the month. The ongoing weak PV is likely to elevate the risk of wintry weather across the NH continents, especially Siberia but also including East Asia, Europe and the US during much of December.

Eurasian snow cover

Eurasian snow cover was above the normal level for the whole of October. It has stalled now, but is still well above where it should be for this time of year


Arctic sea ice

With a record low recorded this year (measured in sept) the Arctic ice levels are well below normal and show little signs of a fast recovery.

So, what does all this jargon mean exactly?


The PV is normally centred around or above the pole, this locks in the cold air to the high northern hemisphere reasons, its currently off centre, and unusually split. This allows the colder air to push much further south than it normally does. This allows cold air incursions into the habitable areas of the NH. We saw this in motion a week ago, when it became much colder than average for November.


Eurasian snow cover helps to create what’s know as a Siberian High, again we saw first-hand what this does to our weather a week ago. The higher the snow cover, the colder the air above the region gets and stays. The Siberian High then blocks the weather coming across the Atlantic. This sits over to the east of us, sometimes referred to as the best from the east. Sometimes the block falls in our favour, and any rain heading our way is then more likely to fall as snow. When it doesn’t fall in our favour, if its set up just slightly further east, it blocks the weather from Europe, but we still get hit it (rain)


Last year the AO was positive pretty much all through the winter, and the PV was centred and strong. Most forecasters are saying a colder than average winter, with none wanting to commit to saying much colder winter (apart from the idiot from the express Nathan Rao who says it every year regardless)



The longer the AO stays negative, and the longer the PV remains weak and split, the higher and increasing chances are of the winter being colder than the past few years. Also the El Nino event of last year has now switched to a la Nina, which means there won’t be as many storms rolling in from the Atlantic.

[scotty]

Starting to get the fun white stuff weather again