I think they would do anything to avoid the championship being retrospectively decided in this manner. The powers that be would see it as extremely harmful to the general perception of F1, potentially more harmful than not applying the penalty.
It seems odd that the pass is being allowed when the lights were flashing yellow and the dash indicators were also lit up yellow. Flags currently overrule both the lights inside and outside the car (on the basis that the light system could fail) and so the waved green flag at the pit exit will be seen as reason to let the pass stand.
Whatever happens people will pick fault in it. Vettel wins - some will say the FIA ignored the rules. Alonso wins - some will say as so often in the past, that the FIA is always biased towards Ferrari.
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